Is Leave really ahead by 10 points?

In the last week of the EU referendum polling suggests that Leave is ahead.

The latest ICM poll of 2000 people showed that 48% intended to back Leave, while only 43% would back Remain. A recent poll conducted by YouGov suggested that 45% would vote Leave while 41% would vote Remain. Meanwhile, the latest poll by ORB puts Leave ahead by 10 points – with 55% backing Leave, and 45% backing Remain.

In response to the ICM poll, Vote Leave tweeted that it doubted its veracity. Its own data gave a 50-50 split. Other polls also make this out to be a tighter contest. The latest YouGov poll puts Remain ahead by one point, with 43% for Remain and 42% for Leave.

Professor John Curtice, a polling analyst from Strathclyde University, has just given a presentation on EU referendum polling in which he says that the polls have been “extraordinary stable” in recent months.

Curtice suggests that ‘Remain’ will gain from voters’ tendency to vote for the status quo come polling day. However, he has also pointed out that Leave supporters are statistically more likely to vote because they are generally older.